President Trump’s prediction that the Coronavirus will disappear when the weather turns warm seems to be on shaky ground. Instead, the virus appears to be headed to becoming a pandemic. The chances there will be large scale outbreaks in the US are very high and we have not been tested in this way for over 100 years. I strongly doubt it will go well.
To date, the Trump administration really has not faced a hard problem. He inherited an economy that after recovery from a long recession has been running on autopilot. Internationally, there have been a few tense moments but nothing like a Cuban Missile crisis or the attack on the Twin Towers. But, I fear things are about to change and I have little confidence that this administration is up to the task of fighting a huge public health challenge.
As of February 25, 2020 there are 80,239 cases world wide in 34 countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) has raised the risk level for the world to high (WHO situation report 35, February 25, 2020). Italy, South Korea, and Iran are having trouble containing their cases. The virus is clearly contagious well before people become symptomatic
Trump’s cabinet of loyal cronies were not selected for their knowledge or skills but rather for their support of the President. As he has pushed to remove those who disagree with him, Trump is eviscerating the civil service. He has replaced career professionals with partisan hacks. It is unclear if we have the leadership capability to handle a full blown pandemic. With a red hot economy, large shares of Americans have looked the other way when it comes to Trump’s short comings. Frightened, frustrated Americans will be less tolerant. It is most ironic that something that is not his fault, may prove to be his downfall.