Trump’s Proposed Social Program Cuts
Trump’s 2020 budget slashes the safety net programs. Because this budget will not make it out of the House, it is not getting much attention. However, it tell us a great deal about Trump’s values and how he is trying to transform Federal spending. As much as Americans like the concept of a smaller government, they generally do not want programs they use cut. Trump’s budget cuts many programs, but I focus on the large cuts to Medicaid, Medicare, SNAP (food stamps) and TANF (welfare). A such, the percentage of the population using Federal social programs that Trump is targeting for cuts (e.g. educational loans) is higher than shown here. The graph below shows the annual cuts proposed for Medicaid, Medicare, SNAP, and TANF over the next 10 years as a percentage of their FY 2019 budgets.
Many Southern States will be Hit Hard
Although many think of urban minorities as the users of Federal social program, that is not an accurate picture. Many southern states have significant population shares on these programs. The table below shows the percentage of the states’ population on each of these programs. The table is ordered by the percentage of the population on Medicaid. I add Medicaid and Medicare uses in the last column as there are very few dual users so these two groups are generally distinct. Adding these participation rates provides a rough measure of the percentage of the states’ population on at least one major Federal social welfare program.
Percentage of States’ Population using Select Social Programs
State | Medicaid 2017 | Medicare 2017 | TANF 2011 | SNAP 2018 | Sum of Medicaid+Medicare |
New Mexico | 0.34 | 0.14 | 2.5 | 16.6 | 0.48 |
West Virginia | 0.28 | 0.18 | 1.3 | 16.4 | 0.46 |
Louisiana | 0.28 | 0.13 | 0.5 | 16.3 | 0.41 |
DC | 0.28 | 0.08 | 3.9 | 14.9 | 0.36 |
Vermont | 0.28 | 0.16 | 1.2 | 13.6 | 0.44 |
Kentucky | 0.27 | 0.15 | 1.4 | 16.9 | 0.42 |
Arkansas | 0.27 | 0.16 | 0.6 | 14.3 | 0.43 |
New York | 0.26 | 0.12 | 2 | 15.4 | 0.38 |
California | 0.26 | 0.11 | 3.9 | 9.4 | 0.37 |
Mississippi | 0.24 | 0.13 | 0.8 | 18 | 0.37 |
Rhode Island | 0.24 | 0.14 | 1.5 | 16.1 | 0.38 |
Massachusetts | 0.24 | 0.13 | 1.5 | 12.5 | 0.37 |
Oregon | 0.23 | 0.15 | 2.3 | 18.8 | 0.38 |
Michigan | 0.22 | 0.15 | 1.8 | 15.9 | 0.37 |
Arizona | 0.22 | 0.15 | 0.6 | 13.2 | 0.37 |
Alaska | 0.22 | 0.09 | 1.4 | 10.5 | 0.31 |
Tennessee | 0.21 | 0.15 | 2.5 | 16.5 | 0.36 |
Alabama | 0.21 | 0.16 | 1.2 | 15.6 | 0.37 |
Ohio | 0.21 | 0.15 | 2 | 14.9 | 0.36 |
Washington | 0.21 | 0.13 | 2.2 | 13.9 | 0.34 |
Illinois | 0.2 | 0.13 | 0.6 | 13.3 | 0.33 |
Pennsylvania | 0.2 | 0.16 | 1.1 | 13 | 0.36 |
Connecticut | 0.2 | 0.14 | 0.9 | 12.4 | 0.34 |
Colorado | 0.2 | 0.12 | 0.6 | 8.6 | 0.32 |
Florida | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.5 | 14.8 | 0.36 |
S. Carolina | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.9 | 14.8 | 0.35 |
Nevada | 0.19 | 0.14 | 1 | 12.4 | 0.33 |
Montana | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.9 | 10.6 | 0.35 |
Maine | 0.18 | 0.17 | 3 | 16.3 | 0.35 |
N. Carolina | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.5 | 14.4 | 0.33 |
Oklahoma | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.5 | 13.7 | 0.33 |
Delaware | 0.18 | 0.17 | 1.7 | 13 | 0.35 |
Idaho | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.2 | 12.2 | 0.32 |
Indiana | 0.18 | 0.14 | 1 | 12.2 | 0.32 |
Iowa | 0.18 | 0.15 | 1.8 | 11.7 | 0.33 |
Hawaii | 0.18 | 0.15 | 2.2 | 11.6 | 0.33 |
Maryland | 0.18 | 0.12 | 1.1 | 11.1 | 0.3 |
Georgia | 0.17 | 0.12 | 0.4 | 15.3 | 0.29 |
Texas | 0.17 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 13.1 | 0.27 |
Wisconsin | 0.17 | 0.15 | 1.1 | 12.7 | 0.32 |
New Jersey | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.9 | 9.3 | 0.3 |
Minnesota | 0.17 | 0.14 | 1 | 8.9 | 0.31 |
Missouri | 0.15 | 0.16 | 1.6 | 13 | 0.31 |
South Dakota | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.8 | 10.9 | 0.28 |
Kansas | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1.3 | 9.1 | 0.28 |
N. Hampshire | 0.14 | 0.17 | 1 | 7.8 | 0.31 |
Nebraska | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1.1 | 9 | 0.26 |
Wyoming | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.1 | 6 | 0.27 |
Virginia | 0.12 | 0.14 | 1 | 9.4 | 0.26 |
Utah | 0.11 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 8.3 | 0.21 |
North Dakota | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.7 | 7.4 | 0.24 |
As the table shows, all states have significant shares of their population on these safety net programs. Utah has the lowest Medicaid and Medicare participation rates at 21 percent while New Mexico has nearly half of its population in one of these programs. Several of red states have very high program use including West Virginia, Louisiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Arkansas. Cuts to these programs will clearly hurt these states.
It should be noted that for decades, Medicaid, TANF, and SNAP have been under scrutiny and the trend has been tighter eligibility requirements and more austere benefits. TANF (welfare) is a very small program. In addition, TANF and SNAP both have work requirements.
If Voters Knew about these cuts would they still VOte for Trump?
If the residents of West Virginia voted their interests Trump would not win the state. Sixty eight percent of the voters in West Virginia went for Trump, yet 28 percent are on Medicaid, 18 percent are on Medicare, and over 16 percent are on SNAP. Do the voters understand that these programs are in Trump’s crosshairs? If they did, would they continue to support him. It is too soon to know if this will affect his support but I suspect it won’t as voters often vote against their own interest.
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