Trump always wants to be number one and when it comes to COVID-19 the US is in first place. The US now has the unfortunate distinction of leading the world in both COVID- 19 cases (533,115) and deaths (20,580) (Worldometers) as of 6:45 on April 12, 2020. We have had over 20,000 deaths and models project our losses will grow to over 60,000 by August 4, 2020 (UofWashington).
How Bad It Is
We have become so accustom to hearing death estimates in the thousands that these numbers roll off our tongues without even a pause. But, let’s take a moment to put this crisis in perspective. This is the greatest threat to American lives since World War II when we lost over 400,000 military personal. When it has run its course, COVID-19 will have killed more Americans than any of our military conflicts since World War II and nearly double the numbers that succumb to flu each year.
Event Deaths Source
Iraqi Freedom 4,431 (DOD)
911 2,977 (wikipedia)
Vietnam 58,220 (britannica)
Korea 36,913 (cbsnews/)
2018/19 flu 34,200 (cdc)
Failure to Act
How did this happen? We have a sophisticated healthcare system and since 911 have spent millions on preparedness, which included plans for responding to a pandemic. These advantages evaporated because the president was unwilling (or unable) to recognize the threat.
Trump’s lack of leadership delayed our response efforts by 3 months. The intelligence community reported concerns about the virus as early as November, 2019 (abcnews). China went public about the virus on December 31, 2019. (WHO).
"However, in his first public comments about the virus on Jan, 22nd, he said he wasn't worried. “Not at all,” he said. “We have it totally under control.” Throughout February, Trump dismissed Democrats’ alarm about the virus as their new “hoax,” blamed “the Democrat policy of open borders” for the pathogen’s spread and insisted that his Jan. 31 decision to restrict travel from China had contained the outbreak. By Feb. 29, officials reported the first coronavirus–related death of an American on U.S. soil." (Time)
By not taking actions until March, we lost precious planning and mobilization time. We could have supplied localities with testing kits and ventilators BEFORE their hospitals were overwhelmed with cases. We could have invoked social distancing policies before the virus had spread so widely. Other countries (e.g. South Korea) that immediately began aggressive testing and invoked social distancing, appear to be faring better than the US.
How much of a difference a faster response would have made in the US will likely be debated for years. Trump will continue with his usual attack dance, deflecting the responsibility to others and blaming the states and the media. But in the end, some significant number of Americans will have died because of his lack of leadership and incompetence. Our COVID-19 deaths would not be zero under any scenario, but they might 5, 10 or even 15 percent lower than the current numbers and projections. That means several thousand people will die do his inaction.
Unforgivable
Trump’s poll numbers actual improved over the past few months. Many attributing it to the bump one often sees during the initial phase of a crisis. People rally around the president, at least, at first. But it is unclear if his popularity will remain stable in the face of a growing death rate, a large spike in unemployment, and many more weeks of social distancing. In the end, everyone will know someone was stricken by the virus (I already do) and lost their job. Many of us will know someone who died. When confronted with the reality of this pandemic, I do not think the American people will forgive Donald Trump.