Where to get 38 electoral votes?
Trump beat Clinton 306 to 232 or by 74 electoral votes. The Democrats need to flip 38 votes in 2020 to win. The most promising strategy for obtaining the needed votes resides with three battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Combined these states have 46 electoral votes. Historically, they have voted for the Democrat in presidential elections and they voted blue in the 2018 midterms (Politicaleye).
The Voting CLimate
As we have come to realize, under our arcane system (made worse by district gerrymandering and voter suppression laws), the will of the people is not necessary reflected in the final electoral college count. An important factor determining who gets to vote and how their vote is counted, is the party currently in power at the state level. These states all have Democratic Governors but the Republicans control the legislatures. This balance usually protects against extreme actions being taken to limit voting. However, prior to the newly elected Democratic Governor taking office, the Wisconsin legislature took extreme steps to limit voting as well as curtail the power of the Governor. The changes made by the lame-duck legislature were struck down in Federal court (NPR). However, Wisconsin still has one of the most restrictive voting laws that requires a photo ID to vote.
THe Polls
The polls currently suggest the Democrats will win big in all three states. All the major Democratic candidates are polling ahead of Trump in a direct match up. Based on polling data reported by RealClearPolls and 538, Biden has a double digit lead in Michigan, is up by 9.5 percentage points in Pennsylvania, and leads by 6 points in Wisconsin.
Do any other states matter?
Looking at the electoral map and past voting patterns, there are only a few other states likely to be truly in play. Florida, Ohio and Iowa all show signs that their races may be competitive. Iowa only has 6 electoral votes so, to be frank, it just is not that important. I do not think any Democratic should bank on Florida, especially given they have a very conservative Governor and a history of poorly managing the voting process. Finally, let us not forget that Trump won Ohio by 51.7 percent to Clinton’s 43.6 percent and although the polls show most Democratic candidates ahead of Trump, the margins are at most 4 percentage points.
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