Weathering the Storm
All the evidence suggests that President Trump will weather being impeached and still has a chance at winning a second term. He has tried many different defenses over the past several months to justify or excuse his infamous call with the Ukrainian president and appears to have settled on “I did it, but so what”. That is, his wheeling and dealing US financial aid to get a foreign power to investigate a political rival is perfectly fine according to Trump ethics. As part of his “defense”, he has gone on tirades attacking the Democrats, the media, liberals, and apparently anything else that is bothering him at the moment including windmills and low flush toilets. Through all of this, his base has stayed with him and there has been little movement in the public opinion polls.
Trump’s Support
How can so many people not be influenced by the impeachment proceedings? One theory is that we listen to partisan news which works to reinforce our initial opinions. I do not completely buy this argument as I keep Fox news in my mix of media outlets that my phone uses to provide me with news summaries. But the default on google news is to use media outlets that you read, so without purposefully selecting a conservative outlet, they disappear from the news summary.
Another theory is that in the end “it is the economy, stupid.” The low unemployment rate is more important than ethnics or adherence to our Constitution or the principles of democracy. People can easily be “bought off” if the economy is good and their daily lives are relatively comfortable. In fact, Trump appears to be actively working to buy off specific segments of the population with “gifts” such as a Federal pay raise (finally) and an extra day off (December 24th) or for farmers a new NAFTA just in time for the election (that is very similar to the old NAFTA). Are we so shallow a people that all that matters is having a few extra dollars in our pocket, right now?
A third, darker theory is that Trump speaks to the true beliefs of his base. Under this theory, nearly half the country has been suppressing their true beliefs for decades. They are angry, racist, homophobic, misogynistic, anti-environmentalist, who feel like they have not gotten their fair share. Although I believe a segment of the population fits this profile, I do not believe it comes anywhere near 50 percent of voters.
The final theory is a blend of the three above theories which is the explanation I think makes the most sense. First, and foremost, people are malleable, fickle, and often vote against their own interests. These traits, combined with how information and disinformation is disseminated, low unemployment, and racist holdover thoughts from our past, created the perfect storm that allowed Trump to become president and potentially win a second term.
On thin ice
With that said, Trump’s position is not secure. He won in 2016 by edging out Clinton in a handful of states. He still lost the popular vote. Polls suggest that he may have lost ground in several of these battleground states since 2016. In addition, the majority of people do not think he is doing a good job and an even higher percentage do not rate him favorably, Real Clear Politics (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/) shows that 51.9 percent of voters rate his job performance negatively as compared to 44.6 that give him a positive rating. But when asked about their opinion of the president, 54.7 say it is unfavorable while 42.2 say favorable. This suggests that there are 5.2 percent of the population that believe he is doing a good job but they do not like him.
The Democrats are Driving the Train
How the 2020 election goes really is in the hands of Democrats. Some argue that election will be mostly about turnout and the Democratic candidate needs to be someone who can inspire the base. I think when people make the high turnout argument they are really thinking of Obama in 2008. In 2008, Obama got 69 million votes, which was a 10 million increase over John Kerry’s numbers in 2004.
However, high turnout alone does not necessarily translate into a win for the Democrat. 2016 was a high turnout year, with 60.1 percent of eligible voters turning out to vote. In fact, in the last 5 presidential elections, only 2008 had higher turnout rate (62.2 percent) than 2016 (elect project). Hilary Clinton not only had more votes than Trump, she had more votes than George Bush every received and came very close to Obama’s 2012 numbers. Her problem wasn’t turnout or votes but rather the distribution of votes. Trump won Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin by less than 1 percent of the vote. All of these states had above average turnout rates but they were not as high as they had been in 2008.
Others believe that nominating a centrist candidate is the best approach as they will be able to win over 4 to 6 percent of electorate, which will tip the scales in favor of the Democrats. I subscribe more to this latter approach and admonish any progressive who would contemplate not voting because the candidate is not far enough to the left. Any of the current Democratic candidates would be a vast improvement over Trump.
A Vision for the Future
Ultimately, the Democratic candidate must inspire people to both vote against Trump and for a vision of the future. I think the vision of the future is central to a winning campaign. Trump is a short-term thinker, a Band-Aid guy, who is reactive to the issue of the moment rather than having a vision for the US in the 21st century. The platform needs address the important issues that Trump has either opposed or ignored.
- Healthcare: not Medicare for all but something closer to Medicaid for all. No, I would never say campaign on this slogan. I think voters would be open to offering a safety net option in addition to the current employer sponsored insurance and it will cost a lot less than Medicare.
- Climate change and the environment. We will lead the world on saving the planet. We are the only nation that has a chance to do this successfully.
- Foreign policy: Have a coherent, proactive foreign policy. Repair the damage that has been done
- Education: Make community college affordable to all by setting the tuition at a level where one can pay for it by working part-time and in the summers. Do not make it free. We want people who enroll in school to really want to get a degree and not just be “killing” time.
- Increase taxes on the rich to cut the deficit and lessen the extreme concentration of income and wealth among a very few families.
- Restore ethics
Impeaching Trump was always going to be just a statement as the Republican dominated Senate said early on they would acquit him. It is an important statement that will be marked in history. He has committed many impeachable offenses and needed to be formally impeached for our system to have a chance at continuing to operate in the future.
Now we have to turn to the 2020 election in earnest. We need to back up impeachment by voting him out of office. An acquitted Trump will truly run wild if he is elected to a second term.
Merry Christmas and let’s get down to work!