The President says we need to fear the invasion of the caravan. People are coming into this country to hurt us. Be afraid, very afraid and vote Republican.
This argument is based on a house of cards. The number of refugees seeking asylum in this country is at a 38 year low based on data from the Department of Homeland Security and State Department (DHS, State Dept) In 1980, when Ronald Reagan became president, there were 207,116 refugees who sought asylum in the US. The numbers fell by the mid-1980s. The numbers rose again beginning in 1989 through 1994, during George H. Bush’s presidency. By the late-1990s, the number substantially fell and have stayed below 100,000 asylum seekers per year since then.
When Trump became president in 2017, there were less than 85,000 people who sought asylum. With his hard-line stance on immigration, the numbers have continued to fall. In FY 2018, the most current full year of data, only 22,491 people claimed asylum. Based on the first month of FY 2019, it appears that about 22,000 will seek asylums this year in the US. This is 11 percent of the 1980 volume.
Furthermore, although not part of the caravan, the flow of illegal immigrants coming into the country appears to have also fallen dramatically. Although difficult to get precise numbers on the flow of new undocumented immigrants into the country, the chart below shows the number of apprehensions on the Mexican border have fallen by two-thirds starting around 2008. The chart is from Factcheck,org and uses US Customs and Border Protection data.
There is no Invasion
In relative terms, the flow of asylum seekers is now a trickle. We are mobilizing based on numbers that are far below what we have typically handled in the past with the border patrol.
The Burgeoning Boarder Patrol
Furthermore, we have more forces than ever to deal with people coming over the border. During this time period, as the flow of asylum seekers and illegal immigrants has dwindled, the border patrol force has grown rapidly, more than quadrupling in size. As the figure below shows, the border patrol in 1992 had 4,139 personnel (US Customs). Of this force, 3,555 were assigned to the southern border. By 2017, these numbers has burgeoned to 19,437 total patrols of which 16,505 are assigned to the border with Mexico.
A WASTE OF MONEY
We have sent 7,000 troops to the border to defend against a trickle (Time). It is estimated that the cost of the National Guard that has been deployed to the border since April, 2018 exceeded $100 million as of September. Furthermore, if the troops stay through the end of the year that cost could double to over $200 million (WP).
You have been BAMBOOZLED
Unfortunately, when the President of the United States says something repeatedly, people will believe it. Check the data. It all comes from the Trump government’s websites.