Now that the dust has settled and more data are available, we find voter turnout for the 2022 mid-term elections was mixed for Democrats. This leaves things very wide open for 2024.
The Importance of Turnout
The media puts a great deal of emphasis on voter turnout as a key element in determining the outcome of elections. However, aggregate voter turnout levels often contribution little to explaining the election results. The turnout rate among the voting eligible population (VEP) for the 2022 mid-term election was high [1]. Voter turnout in the 2022 midterm elections (46.6%) was nearly as high as it was in 2018 (49.9%), which was an exceptionally high rate relative to the past. The 2018 mid-term elections became a referendum on Trump and spurred voter turnout to increase more than 10 percentage points over the 2014 rate (36.7%). As political polarization continues, high turnout may be the new norm.
Who Turned Out ?
Assessing how high turnout effected the 2022 elections, and may affect the 2024 election, is complicated and hampered by the limited data available on turnout by party affiliation. First, we do not have a robust picture of current party affiliation nationally because only 32 states have voter registration by party. In addition, while states report voting by demographic subgroups, they do not breakdown turnout by party affiliation. Survey data also serve as a source for national measures of party affiliation and turnout but are typically about 2 years old.
Both administrative registration data and survey data show the Democratic Party continues to be larger than the Republican Party. Within the 32 states that register by party, as of 2022, there were 47.9M (28%) registered Democrats, 36.4M (22%) Republicans, and 35.3M (21%) Independents. Gallup collects and reports party affiliation data monthly and, as of January 2023, they found 27 percent of those surveyed identified with the Republican Party, 30 percent with the Democratic Party, and 40 percent as independents[2]. Common wisdom has been that high turnout helps the Democrats because they are the largest party.
Although the Democratic Party is substantially larger than the Republican Party, the data suggest a mixed picture regarding who benefits from high turnout. This stems from the fact that a significant share of Democratic Party voters are from demographic groups who have had historically low turnout rates. Exhibit 1 shows the demographic profile of the electorate by party affiliation/leaning in 2017[3]. Both minorities and young people heavily tilt to the Democratic Party but have relatively low turnout rates historically. Early evidence suggests that both groups had high turnout rates in 2022 relative to the past but their impact on the election results were somewhat different.
Turnout for the Democrats is a Mixed Picture
To change the outcome of the election, the turnout rates of demographic groups that is aligned with the Democrats had to increase relative to their counterparts that favor the Republicans. In the case of age, the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), at Tufts University, estimated the turnout rate among young people (18-29) was 27 percent in 2022, which approaches its high of 32 percent in 2018.[4] This was well above its historical levels that hovered around 20 percent for mid-term elections. With turnout relatively flat among other age groups, the high turnout among young people significantly contributed to the Democrat’s wins. In contrast, despite the relatively strong turnout rate for minorities compared to the past, the voting gap widened between whites and minorities because white turnout rose faster than minority turnout. For example, a Brennan Center for Justice [5] analysis revealed that while Georgia saw turnout numbers in 2022 that were similar to the 2018 midterm rates, the racial turnout gaps actually widened. White turnout (55.6%) was higher than the 2018 levels while nonwhite turnout (47.0%) fell by 1.1 percent, widening the gap to 8.6 percentage points. Most of this gap is due to turnout differences between black and white voters, which is 7.3 percent.
Exhibit 1: Profile of the Electorate by Party and Demographics [3}
Using 2018 data, Five Thirty Eight estimated that the demographic composition of the Republican Party, and their proclivity to vote, gave them a 3 – 6 percent turnout edge for midterm elections [6}. This wipes out much, if not all, of the Democrat’s size advantage.
High turnout is a positive event in that more people participated in our democracy and engaged in politics. However, high turnout does not necessarily favor one party or the other. It is only at the subgroup level, when one examines turnout amongst those who heavily favor a particular party can on infer its impact on the election and current state of politics in the country. Viewed from this perspective, 2022 was a modestly good election for Democrats but 2024 is very much up in the air.
I am not that happy.
Notes
[1] Presidential elections have higher turnout rates than other elections. Therefore, when assessing turnover rates over time, researchers assess mid-election years and presidential election years separately.
[2] https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
[3] https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups
[4] https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/despite-high-voter-turnout-racial-gap-persisted-georgia-primary
[5] https://circle.tufts.edu/2022-election-center
[6] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-republicans-really-have-a-big-turnout-advantage-in-midterms/