Over the past 10 years, the Republicans have increasingly shunned compromise and have engaged in procedural maneuvering to forward their objectives. Most recently, this approach has been on display as they push through the Supreme Court justice nomination. What is driving this extreme partisanship and what is the Republican agenda? Although the Republican agenda includes forwarding traditional positions such as cutting taxes, I contend that it is survival in the face of negative demographic trends. Boiled down to its essence, it the last stand of white men to keep power.
Republicans face unfavorable demographic trends
The demographic base of the Republican Party is shrinking. The election of Barack Obama drove home how the country is changing in very explicit terms. While 89 percent of Republican are non-Hispanic whites, only 60 percent of the Democrats are from this demographic group {Gallup} It is this demographic group that is projected to continue to shrink. As the Pew Research Center {PEW Research} shows, by approximately 2045 whites will be in the minority in the US.
Without action, the Republican Party will wither and become irrelevant. The party has two options, broaden its base or work to put laws and institutions in place now that will extend their power dominance in the face of a shrinking base. They have chosen the latter strategy─ empower their minority position. We only have to look to the last election to find an example of how our institutions, such as the Electoral College, can shift power to minority groups. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2,864,974 {Time} but lost the election because our system is based on the votes in each state.
The Devil’s Deal
By choosing not to shift to the center, the Republicans have taken a path that inherently collides with many of the basic principles of our system of government. In effect, they have made a deal with the devil in which the end justifies the means. Retiring Senator Jeff Flake made reference to this deal in his 2017 book called “The Conscience of a Conservative: A Rejection of Destructive Politics and a Return to Principle” He wrote:
“…the conservative bargain was to go along for the very bumpy ride because …we had the numbers to achieve some long-held policy goals — even as we put at risk our institutions and our values … If this was our Faustian bargain, then it was not worth it.” [CNN}
The Supreme Court
A key element to enabling a minority party to rule is to control the Supreme Court. Appointing conservative justices now can have an impact for over 30 years as justices serve for life. With control of the Supreme Court, policies that ensure white Americans retain dominance, such as strict immigration rules and voting right requirements that make it hard for minorities to vote, will be upheld.
I believe the Republicans see a small window of time in which they can get these changes accomplished. They fear they will lose substantial power after the midterm elections. Therefore, they need to ram the Kavanaugh nomination through, even if it requires making deal with the devil and compromising one’s principles. Although holding on to power at all expense is a very dark interpretation of the Republican Party leadership’s motivations, it explains the frenetic tone, the lack of dissent among the ranks even when principles are being violated, and the anger.