We all learned from the 2016 election that the distribution of votes matters far more than the total number of votes. Despite losing the popular vote, President Trump won in the Electoral College by narrowly winning several states that had been traditionally Democratic states.
Most states are not in play
Most states are clearly blue or red and have been for many election cycles. The election is going to be fought and won in a handful of states that have recently flipped between voting Republican and Democratic.
Six states will decide the election
The key states that are likely to be part of the Democrat’s strategy for taking back the Presidency are those that Obama won in 2008 and 2014 but went to Trump in 2016. These states include Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Within this group, the first 4 states also had multiple US House seats flip from Republican to Democratic in the 2018 midterms. As the table below shows, Pennsylvania may have the most promise for going Democratic in 2020 followed by Michigan and Iowa. Although Wisconsin did not have any US House seats flip from Republicans to Democratic, it did flip the Governor. Florida is a mixed picture with two House seats flipping to the Democrats but a Senate seat flipping to the Republicans.
Trump States that Show Some Support for Democrats
To win, the Democrats need to gain 38 additional Electoral College votes over their 2016 performance. Of the top 6 Trump states that are now tilting Democratic, Pennsylvania has 20 Electoral votes, Florida 29, Iowa 6, Michigan 16, Ohio 18, and Wisconsin 10. As such there are several combinations that would produce the needed 38 additional Electoral College votes. As the table shows, the other potential states that might be in play in 2020, such as Arizona or North Carolina, are much more of a long shot for the Democrats.
If you live in Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, or Wisconsin brace yourself for the campaign that is about to begin.