Trump will lose
It is no wonder why President Trump fired his polling team. He is in deep trouble. If the election were held today he would not only lose, he would lose in a landslide.
I used all the available state level polls that provide data on Trump verses Biden to estimate the 2020 election outcome. I found currently polling data on Trump vs. Biden for 15 states from 538.com and Real Clear Politics.com. In cases, where there were multiple polls available, I took the average.
Landslide
The states with current polling data on the President vs, Biden are Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin. Trump won in all but 4 of these states. Based on the current polling data, he would only beat Biden in Kentucky and South Carolina and tie in Florida.
ELECTORAL VOTES:
BIDEN 391.5
TRUMP 146.5
I estimate that Biden will win 391..5 electoral votes to Trump’s 146.5. He will also win the popular vote with 68.4 M votes (53.2%) as compared to Trump’s 60.2 M votes (46.8%). In calculating this estimate, I assume that Biden will do as well as Clinton did in states in which there is no current polling (using data from doc.google.com). I use the new polling data to estimate the votes in the 15 states that do have current polling data. As Florida is currently tied between Trump and Biden, I split its electoral votes which is not how it works in reality. I make the assumption that turnout will be the same as it was in 2016. These assumptions probably reduce the precision of the estimates but the win margin is so large that even if turn our shifted a bit, the result would stand.
It is still early
The only good news for Trump is that it is still early and as the incumbent he has an inherent advantage. What is working against him is his behavior, lack of ethics, nasty personality, neanderthal thinking, racist overtones, history of objectifying women (and attacking them?) and desire to turn the clock back to 1900.