One strategy the Democrats will likely pursue is “the northern strategy” of targeting Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If the Democrats do as well in 2020 as they did in the 2018 mid-terms, they should win these states for the Presidency (Statesinplay). These 3 states have 46 electoral votes. If the Democratic candidate won the states Clinton won and flipped these 3 states, they would win the 2020 election. Additionally, through his presidency, Trump’s approval rating has remained below 50 percent in all three of these states and the approval-disapproval gap remains -6,-10, -9 as of October 2018 (Morningconsult). Finally, these states now have Democrats as Governors who should be able to stop any attempts to limit voting rights.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania may be the most promising state for the Democrats. The state re-elected its Democratic Governor and incumbent Democratic Senator and the Democrats picked up 4 Congressional seats. At the state level, the Democrats made significant gains in the general assembly and flipped 4 state senate seats (2 still outstanding) out of the 25 up for reelection, and 26 state legislature seats out of the 203 up for reelection. However, despite these gains the Republicans maintain control of the State legislature.
As the figure below shows, in 2016 Trump squeaked out a win over Clinton, getting 48.8 versus 47.6 percent of the vote. In the House of Representative races in the state that year, Republicans did very well winning 53.9 percent of the votes versus Democrats getting 45.7 percent. In contrast, in 2018, the Democratic running for the House beat the Republicans getting 54.8 versus 44.9 percent of the vote. Therefore, if the Democrat mirrors the House midterm candidates, they will win Pennsylvania.
Michigan
Nearly the same pattern holds for Michigan. Michigan returned its Democratic Governor and Senator who were up for reelection to office. Democrats also gained 6 state senate seats and in the state legislature and 6 state House of Representative seats but Republicans maintain the majority in both houses. As the figure below shows, Trump won Michigan by a mere half of a percent. In 2018, the Democrats running for House received 52.3 percent of the versus the Republican’s 44.7 percent. Again, if the Democrat performs as well as the House candidates did in 2016, they will likely win Michigan.
Wisconsin
The data on Wisconsin also suggests a Democratic win in 2020 but by smaller margin. Democrats flipped the governor in Wisconsin and returned to office the Democratic Senator who was up for reelection. The status quo was maintained in the House of Representatives and at the state level the Republicans maintain control of the legislature. In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by a percentage point. In 2018, Democrats running for House seats got 49.8 percent of the vote as compared to the Republican’s 45.8 percent. If this pattern holds in 2020, the Democratic candidate will win the state.