There were 8 states in the 2016 presidential election in which the vote was within 3 percent. These are most likely to be the competitive states in 2020. The 8 states are:
State Electoral votes Polls
- Florida- Trump won by 1% 29 top 4 dems win
- Maine-Clinton won by 3% 4 top 4 dems win
- Michigan- Trump won by < 1% 16 top 4 dems win
- Minnesota-Clinton won by 2% 10 top 4 dems win
- Nevada -Clinton won by 2% 6 3 of 4 dems win
- New Hampshire- Clinton won by <1% 4 top 4 dems win
- Pennsylvania-Trump won by 1% 20 2 of 4 dems win
- Wisconsin- Trump won by 1% 10 3 of 4 dems win
These are the states that are going to matter in 2020. Some pundits include Arizona as a toss up state as Donald Trump’s margin was only 4 percent, The rest of the states are relatively partisan in that they traditionally vote Republican or Democrat by a large margin. Such states are not worth spending significant campaign resources on. The 8 states listed above are likely to get all the attention. These states are important to Donald Trump as they gave him 75 electoral votes. They only yielded 24 electoral votes for Clinton.
The latest state level polls show that the 4 top Democrats-Biden, Sanders, Warren, and Harris all win in Florida, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire (accounting for 63 electoral votes). Biden, Sanders, and Warren win Nevada and Harris ties Trump. Similarly, Biden, Sanders and Harris win Wisconsin and Warren ties Trump, Biden and Sanders win Pennsylvania but Trump beats Harris and Warren.
The map is not looking terribly good for Trump. Unfortunately, Donald Trump does not do well under pressure and it appears to bring out the worst in him.
Hello there, I found your site via Google while looking for a related topic, your website came up, it looks great. I have bookmarked it in my google bookmarks.